Designing the Next Generation of Technologies
Much of the opportunity for innovation lies in cross-pollinating disciplines— applying innovative thinking from other disciplines and attracting new solvers and new solutions. We can achieve this by opening up the field of conservation to others, and bringing in experts who work in the fields of design, technology, internet and communications technology, engineering, global health, data science, genomics, microbiology, finance, behavioral science, marketing, agriculture, and supply chains. We will focus on engaging those who have the potential to contribute, but have not yet had the opportunity. As science & technology emerges, so may conservation’s efficacy and impact. The following is a brief survey of emerging technologies and approaches that hold promise as breakthroughs for ocean conservation, whether or not they are currently in use. DATA AND ANALYTICS Many ocean challenges stem from the fundamental inability to easily see the size of the challenges—what we call ocean blindness. Our lack of data on oceans and our inability to visualize its changes and threats, or to quantify our impact on it, hamstrings our ability to address these grand challenges of oceans conservation. On the whole, we know frighteningly little about ocean ecology and the associated human impacts. This lack of knowledge has profoundly inhibited ocean conservation efforts. Moreover, there are an abundance of specific challenges that require better data and predictive analytics. Ocean systems are in state of constant dynamism and flux, with greater, less predictable changes underway due to global climatic disruptions. Too often, regulations such as designating marine protected areas (MPAs) are painstakingly established only to see migration patterns shift unexpectedly, limiting their effectiveness. Pirates on the high seas transport contraband like illegally caught fish and modern-day slaves without fear of being caught and brought to justice. Real-time location data for whales is not integrated into routes for cargo ships, resulting in the collision and maiming of migrating whales. Many of the technologies to address these problems are currently available or just over the horizon. A wide array of applicable sensors and analytics are currently being used in a variety of industries. The democratization of science, technology, and innovation, documented through advances in processors, memory & storage, connectivity, and mobile technology, have rapidly driven down the prices and increased the utility of sensors and analytics. They have given us tremendous new abilities to understand the abundance, distribution, and change of species, communities, and ecosystems; their interconnections; and their underlying proximate and ultimate threats. We now have the capacity to monitor entire ecosystems and the changes they are undergoing in nearly real time. New nanosatellite constellations, like Planet Labs, have greatly improved the cadence and scale of our ability to image the entire planet at higher resolution, and their use of consumer technology and low cost allow for continual iteration and improvement of their technology. These may prove particularly useful in monitoring marine protected areas, tracking changes in surface water chemistry, and monitoring fishing activity on the high seas. Initiatives such as Esri’s ocean mapping and Google Ocean and offer a giant leap into ocean awareness and exploration, and may be used in the future to create a Global Forest Watch for our oceans. Companies like PlanetOS (formerly Marinexplore) offer analytic tools and big data architecture to make sense of such vast troves of data for search, analysis, and discovery for real world sensor networks in oceans, in the atmosphere, on land and in space. Advances in big data allow for predictive analytics that can help us understand threats before or while they occur. The expansion of mobile platforms (phones, tablets, laptops) has created new methods of tracking demand by analyzing changes in specific behaviors. The UN Global Pulse has used mobile data and purchases of airtime credits to better understand food security and seasonal migration patterns. Conservation can also harness new tools from the private sector, including social media hypertargeting and predictive analytics. Target famously used “predictive analytics” to predict when women were entering their second trimester of pregnancy, based on their shopping habits, in order to better market to them. Such big data analytics could help improve our scientific understanding of the interactions between organisms and their habitat across large spatial and temporal scales, and well as predict where ocean ecosystems are most at risk from human activity. However, conservation science will also increasingly confront challenges with big data regarding data quantity, quality, integration, and information extraction, as well as the cost, robustness, and ease of use of technological solutions. By understanding and quantifying the problems more effectively, we can better direct resources to the areas that need it the most. Current methodologies in data analysis combined with vast increases in computing power have enabled capabilities in data fusion and collaboration that could fill many of these information gaps. By connecting previously disconnected data sources and combining them with mapping and sensing technologies, we can attain an understanding of our oceans at a scale that was previously out of our reach. CONNECTED ECOSYSTEMS The democratization of information technology, coupled with the global spread of mobile platforms, particularly smartphones, allows for revolutionary new approaches in conservation that were impossible a decade ago. There are now 7 billion mobile subscriptions around the world, which serve as gateways to knowledge, sensors for the environment, and platforms for research, education, and capacity building. In Africa, it took 20 years for the first 100 million subscribers, but less than 3 years to attract the next 200 million. By 2015, there will be nearly 1 billion mobile phones in Africa, while the number of landlines stays fixed at 13 million. The percentage of those phones that are smart phones (currently 18%) is increasing at 19% per year. Mobile data use in sub-Saharan Africa doubled between 2012—2013, and is projected to double every year for the next 6 years. With software and mobile sensors designed inclusively with user-centric incentives, coastal people and maritime workers the world over can contribute to and directly benefit from gathering data for the ocean. A shift in perception around citizen science from a voluntary hobby to building a valuable community resource will grow with the increased efficacy of these tools. The connected ecosystem leverages the innovation seen in “smart devices”, which are network-connected physical objects with embedded microprocessors, sensors, and software, to benefit efforts in science and conservation. The work currently underway in the creation of the connected home or “smart cities” has bigger implications than many realize. It is not a large leap to go from a smart city to a smart ecosystem. In addition, the hardware created to support the smartphone industry (smaller/faster/ cheaper microprocessors, sensors, storage & memory, batteries, and communications equipment) has created opportunities to miniaturize and spread the Internet of Things capabilities. Current conservation and science efforts could work to create connected nature reserves instead of connected toasters and thermostats. By watching over the appropriate variables in an ecosystem, we can ensure that any impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem health are quickly identified and that the appropriate mitigation efforts are taken. There are a number of fundamental technological benefits that come from the use of sensors and low- power computing/communication hardware. Persistent monitoring of an area is now possible, whereas it is not feasible with traditional sampling and testing methods. Commercial sensor development efforts are more active than ever, offering a wide variety of parameters to measure what is important for a particular region. There are significant efforts underway by telecom and tech companies (like Google and Facebook) to connect the entire planet. Since such devices use similar hardware to that used in smartphones, we can use those same networks for connected ecosystems in areas where communications previously relied on expensive satellites or ground infrastructure. Imagine a marine protected area with autonomous underwater vehicles patrolling the habitat, networked sensors on strategically placed moorings that monitor ocean chemistry and environmental DNA, satellite data that assess both activity and surface-water chemistry, and numerous other sensors (hydrophones, current monitors, weather stations) that integrate all of this data through advanced data analytics. A system for monitoring, assessment, and surveillance could be created using existing tools. And not only could officials patrol and protect the MPA more effectively, our knowledge of how the species are faring in this MPA would be advanced, making conservation outcomes measurable. Moreover, if the systems are created with the appropriate sensors and deployment plans, we can start to identify changes in the environment years (or even decades) before our current capabilities. Under our current monitoring approach, scientists typically monitor conservation efforts through periodic assessments of limited parts of an ecosystem. By watching the declines in animal populations or plant health, we deduce that something is damaging that population. In contrast, if we create low-cost sensor systems to provide persistent monitoring, we can start to observe such changes much sooner by monitoring trends or setting thresholds. Alarms can be set on specific parameters and logic within the computer that can determine risk levels and send notifications. We would be able to see the threats the instant they occur. The low cost and ease-of-build could help to open up new possibilities for scientific data collection and environmental protection (from poaching, overfishing, and resource exploitation) on a magnitude that has never before been possible. THE POWER OF CROWDS The democratization of technology and popularity of crowdsourcing has created an opportunity to expand conservation efforts far beyond the capabilities of a single organization or government. The collaboration inherent in open, networked approaches to conservation creates possibilities for environmental protection that is more effective than traditional methods in science and conservation. Museum collections, for instance, offer the highest quality of species records, with carefully curated voucher specimens verifying each datum. However, this curation limits the pace and scale of what can be collected. We are recognizing that much more data is needed to document the pace of change in the Anthropocene, and to be able to address it. We need to harness the power of crowds. The fastest growth in conservation data comes from large numbers of amateurs. New citizen science tools, such as eBird, the Reef Life Survey, and i-Naturalist, allow a division of labor between amateur observers uploading mystery field observations from smartphones and skilled identifiers who catalogue the photos provided. Cooperation between amateurs and experts now produces high volumes of quality data for diverse taxa. eBird went international in 2010 and now has >100,000 observers and >100 million observations. Novel approaches have been used to identify and count wildlife on Serengeti camera traps, to assess populations of African and Antarctic penguins, and to assist rangers in Namibia through collaborative micromapping. Wildbook has used recreational divers and instructors to improve the understanding of whale sharks’ ranging behavior and distribution. Through their website (www.whaleshark.org), they have collected more than 53,000 images of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) and 25,000 sighting reports, resulting in collaborative tagging of 5,200 whale sharks, from 4,000 divers, 365 days per year. Apps like iNaturalist—which has acquired one million observations in a few years—feed data to Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Leafsnap automatically identifies tree species using photos of their leaves. These tools provide democratization of assisted expertise tools, coupled with curation for quality control. The possibility of offering incentives for data collection also exists. Gigwalk, a company who pays users small amounts of money to upload photos of store shelves on behalf of retailers that need customer data, could be applied to generating data from under-studied and unmonitored marine habitats. Recognition and competition may be as effective as financial rewards. Prizes and challenge competitions focus attention on a problem, without being constrained by existing practices. The Grand Challenges programs, for instance, do not purport to know the solutions to the world’s most pressing development issues—but they are willing to take risks and invest to create new solutions. When problems at the core of a prize or a challenge are well defined, they efficiently focus research and development efforts to engage and capture the imagination of the world’s best researchers and innovators. A prize can focus on a specific breakthrough, while a challenge could result in a community of possible solutions. With well-developed problem statements and identified characteristics of a solution, we may use a challenge or prize to rapidly develop deployable solutions which are selected not only for technical excellence, but for their potential for scale, translation of research, and impact. The philanthropic community has extensively used competitions in the last decade (USAID and Gates’ Grand Challenges for Development, as well as the X Prize, are examples). Such tools of open innovation will encourage disruptive breakthroughs that allow the conservation community to find novel solutions. Greater degrees of global connectivity have enabled greater data collection, analysis, and collaboration across borders than ever before. Open Source Drug Discovery (OSDD) created a platform for collaborative, early-stage research to develop new drugs for neglected tropical diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria. OSDD collaboratively aggregates the biological, genetic, and chemical information available to scientists to hasten the discovery of drugs. It uses a translational platform for drug discovery, bringing together informaticians, wet lab scientists, contract research organizations, clinicians, hospitals, and others who are willing to adhere to the affordable healthcare philosophy by agreeing to the OSDD license. The OSDD approach is to conduct early stage research in an open environment in a highly collaborative fashion involving the best minds from around the world. This approach could facilitate global assessments of biodiversity loss and ecosystem change, new ways of encouraging collaborative translational research that will support the resilience of coral species, or development of replacement products for endangered species such as sharks or for meeting the growing demand for protein. Similarly, open source efforts that have been built around the Arduino/Raspberry Pi/microcontroller communities, 3D printing and software, and in creating technology like drones, OpenROV, and other hardware projects have brought a wealth of open engineering expertise that can be mined to create new systems for conservation. Similarly, data software hackathons/codefests, in which computer programmers, design experts, and subject matter experts collaborate together within a specific event, could be used to engineer solutions for conservation problems, such as wildlife diseases, or improved sensors, or finding ways to better protect species against environmental change. Finally, crowdsourcing has provided new opportunities, not only for participating in science but for funding it as well. In addition to major crowdfunding platforms like Indiegogo and Kickstarter, many smaller, science-specialized platforms exist, such as Medstartr, Experiment, Crowdrise, Razoo, and Rockethub. Crowdfunding allows for higher risk, higher reward science that overcomes the conservatism of government funding and forces scientists to build an audience for their work, which is essential to the public understanding of science. INCENTIVES, BEHAVIOR, AND DESIGN Prevailing cultural norms, institutional inertia, and ingrained notions of the environment can be barriers to systemic change toward sustainable use of the oceans and restorative ocean ecology. Every conservation or development issue involves humans, and, therefore, involves human behavior. Many of the widespread threats to marine life are the result of individual human behavior. This means that addressing the root cause also involves modifying individual behavior, but this reality is underappreciated in conservation. Behavior is the cutting edge of adaptation. It can be the fastest way to meaningful change and also the biggest barrier to it. These challenges of behavior can also provide solutions. Conservation can harness behavior to bring change and break down barriers. This suite of tools includes incentives and rewards, harnessing competition and gamification, knowledge gaps, social pressure and networks, fear, self-identity and self-worth, and altruism, among others. Similarly, financial innovations tied to human behavior also provide opportunities to bring large-scale change. They include pay-for- performance mechanisms such as direct payments for conservation, advance market commitments, social impact bonds, conservation finance, conservation and credit trading platforms, as well as harnessing new tools and platforms such as crowdfunding, microinsurance, microcredits, peer-to-peer lending, pay-as-you-go mechanisms, and franchise schemes. Global health and education have pioneered many of these approaches for social good and offer examples and failures from which conservationists can learn. Design is the application of behavioral science and anthropology to products and systems. When done well, design can integrate the needs of people and species; the possibilities of technology; and the demand for impact, sustainability, and scalability. As nearly half of the world’s population lives within 200 kilometers of a coastline and the majority of those people are in developing nations, we must consider the use cases; potential unintended impacts; cultural and social suitability; cost; environment; maintainability; education levels; and manufacturing, distribution, and supply chains for the development of new behavioral, financial, and technological innovations for the oceans. Artisanal fishers, for example, battle with commercial fishing operations and oftentimes cannot afford the technology or systems improvements that would aid them in the long run. How might we make vital technology like vessel tracking and traceability software an advantage to a fisher instead of a financial burden to avoid? SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY AND PROGRAMABLE LIFE Current advances in molecular biology are rivaling—and in some cases overtaking—the remarkable breakthroughs we have seen in computing and information technology. The human genome experiment in 1990 cost 2.7 billion dollars and took 13 years to create a reference genome of the human species. By 2014, commercial technology could sequence 55 genomes a day, at $1,000 per genome. Concordant with information technology, the efficacy and speed of sequencing efforts have been accompanied by miniaturization and portability. The modern synthesis of biology, technology, and data science has created the entirely new field of synthetic biology. Synthetic biology focuses on the design and fabrication of novel biological components and systems that do not already exist in the natural world, and on the re-design and fabrication of existing systems. This technology will provide new opportunities to protect ocean ecosystems. Specifically, it may help accelerate adaptation to a changing environment due to climate change and increase the resilience of ecosystems against human degradation and invasive species. It can also be used for controlling invasive species, including halting the spread of novel pathogens that threaten ecosystems. Synthetic biology could provide substitutes for resources that are the underlying drivers of environmental change— from protein to plastics—changing demand for products that are currently illegally harvested from protected areas (e.g., meat, timber, non-timber forest products). It will also help with the restoration of existing degraded lands and regions, enabling crop production on lands currently viewed as marginal, thereby reducing the need for ecosystem conversion from forest to farmland. Synthetic biology is not without controversy. Just as with genetically modified organisms, synthetic biology faces many of the challenges of biocontrol, our ability to ensure that natural systems and species are not disrupted by technological intervention into biological processes, as well as concerns over human and ecosystem health. Moreover, synthetic biology techniques are being proposed for use in recreating extinct species (e.g., the mammoth, Tasmanian tiger, and the passenger pigeon), and have significant ethical concerns. These activities are overly mechanistic, failing to incorporate an understanding of development, reproductive biology, and ecology, and may ultimately distract from the positive uses of synthetic biology for conservation. ENGINEERING BIOMES, SPECIES, AND SYSTEMS Recent advances in genomics have opened up our understanding of microbiology. Bacteria and other microbes are the most diverse organisms on earth and play a pivotal role in planetary cycling of nutrients and energy. Within the human body alone, there are over 100 trillion microbial symbionts, which constitutes up to an order of magnitude more non-human cells than human cells. Moreover, the collective microbial genome contains 100 times more genes than the human genome. Microbes control the composition of gases in the atmosphere, and are major agents of nutrient cycles on the planet. Yet much remains to be learned about the ecological role of microbiota. Emerging research suggests that microbes play a significant role in maintaining ecosystem functions over the long term. We do not, however, understand the extent to which microbial communities follow the same rules of community ecology and organization at the microscale, as larger organisms do at the human scale; nor do we understand the extent of the role microbes play in generating and maintaining the earth’s ecological services. Our knowledge of the marine microbiome is also incredibly thin. What we do understand suggests the hidden power of microbiota for conservation. Emerging research suggests important links between the diversity and makeup of an individual’s microbiome (the typical human microbiome is made up of 1,000 species, with considerable variation between individuals), and their physical and mental health, nutrition, immune response, and response to drugs. Disease can result not just from the presence of pathogens, but from the absence or altered composition of organisms in the microbiome. The increase in novel diseases around the world that are decimating species, like the devastating effect of Chytridiomycosis on amphibians, may be a result of imbalance in microbial communities. The power of the microbiota is just beginning to be understood for applications in global health and agriculture, yet there are few applications for conservation— much less for marine conservation. Microbiology, despite borrowing heavily from the foundations of conservation biology and ecology, has been largely ignored by conservation science until recently. Yet, advances in microbiology offer great promise for conservation applications. Within farming systems, which have a significant impact on our oceans, we could potentially reduce the ecological impact of meat production by increasing the efficiency of nutrient extraction in the gut, or alternatively, reducing the need for antibiotics. For plants, microbiological engineering promises novel ways of reducing pesticides to better shape plant health and productivity. Finally, we could create probiotics for conservation, to help with the restoration of natural systems and communities that have been disturbed by human activities and global environment change. BUILDING THE TRIBE We need to build a community of practice for the next generation of conservationists to accelerate and substantially increase conservation’s impact. We will build a novel community from the existing conservation movement, but also incorporate technologists, biological engineers, designers, makers, innovators, hackers, marketers, financiers, and anthropologists. We must serve as a catalyst, connector, amplifier, and mobilizer within the conservation community, relying on an ecosystem of institutions and individuals that enable us to effectively understand, source, test, and accelerate conservation solutions. We call this community our ‘Tribe.’ By creating mechanisms for communities to tell their stories, share conservation successes, fundraise, and collaborate globally, environmental engagement will reach people that it has not previously reached. Many conservation challenges around the world share similarities despite their disparate locations. If the global community had more effective communication approaches and connection to their tribe of solvers, stories would emerge to unite these conservation challenges and solutions, helping the people who are impacted most. Social media initiatives like StoryCorps have been very successful in putting a human face on issues. Conservation, and associated technological solutions, should leverage the importance of story to raise the profile of these issues and create a culture of change.